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Main Author:	Horiike, Hiroshi
Format:	Recurso digital
Language:
Published:	Zenodo 2026
Online Access:	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18321628
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_version_	1866902203128610816
author	Horiike, Hiroshi
author_facet	Horiike, Hiroshi
contents	<p>The search for extraterrestrial life has transitioned from speculative philosophy to an observationally driven scientific endeavor. However, the inference chain connecting abiotic conditions to detectable interstellar civilizations remains conceptually fragile. This paper presents a structured Bayesian analysis of the logical progression from habitability to technology. By integrating exoplanet statistics, evolutionary bottlenecks (such as the eukaryotic transition and the "oxygen bottleneck"), and civilization scaling models, we argue that each step introduces compounding uncertainties.</p>
format	Recurso digital
id	zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18321628
institution	Zenodo
language
publishDate	2026
publisher	Zenodo
record_format	zenodo
spellingShingle	From the Search for Extraterrestrial Life to Interstellar Civilizations: A Stepwise Logical Analysis of Astrobiological and Technological Uncertainties Horiike, Hiroshi <p>The search for extraterrestrial life has transitioned from speculative philosophy to an observationally driven scientific endeavor. However, the inference chain connecting abiotic conditions to detectable interstellar civilizations remains conceptually fragile. This paper presents a structured Bayesian analysis of the logical progression from habitability to technology. By integrating exoplanet statistics, evolutionary bottlenecks (such as the eukaryotic transition and the "oxygen bottleneck"), and civilization scaling models, we argue that each step introduces compounding uncertainties.</p>
title	From the Search for Extraterrestrial Life to Interstellar Civilizations: A Stepwise Logical Analysis of Astrobiological and Technological Uncertainties
url	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18321628

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