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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Horiike, Hiroshi
Formato: Recurso digital
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Publicado: Zenodo 2026
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18321628
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  • <p>The search for extraterrestrial life has transitioned from speculative philosophy to an observationally driven scientific endeavor. However, the inference chain connecting abiotic conditions to detectable interstellar civilizations remains conceptually fragile. This paper presents a structured Bayesian analysis of the logical progression from habitability to technology. By integrating exoplanet statistics, evolutionary bottlenecks (such as the eukaryotic transition and the "oxygen bottleneck"), and civilization scaling models, we argue that each step introduces compounding uncertainties.</p>