Bistability and Hysteresis in Gut Dysbiosis: A Spatiotemporal Mathematical Framework Integrating Phage Dynamics and Metabolic Feedback
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901954232320000 |
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| author | Shibah, Sami Rashid Mohammed |
| author_facet | Shibah, Sami Rashid Mohammed |
| contents | <p><em>The transition from intestinal eubiosis to dysbiosis represents a critical phase shift in a complex adaptive ecosystem, often characterized by hysteresis and resistance to reversal. This manuscript advances beyond descriptive frameworks to propose a rigorous, falsifiable mathematical model of gut microbiota dynamics. We integrate Generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) equations with reaction-diffusion terms to account for spatial heterogeneity along the luminal-mucosal axis. Furthermore, we introduce a coupled metabolic feedback loop linking Short-Chain Fatty Acid (SCFA) concentrations to microbial resilience and explicitly model bacteriophage-host predator-prey dynamics as a mechanism for targeted therapeutic intervention. The model is calibrated using parameters derived from human metagenomic datasets (e.g., GMrepo and Human Microbiome Project), including time-series abundance data for beneficial (e.g., Faecalibacterium prausnitzii) and harmful (e.g., Escherichia coli) bacteria in IBD patients versus healthy controls. We delineate a multi-stage therapeutic protocol that leverages the concept of "tipping points," proposing that successful treatment requires pushing the ecosystem across a separatrix of bistability. This framework provides reproducible Python code for simulation, parameter fitting, and Bayesian inference, establishing quantitative biomarkers for early warning signals of dysbiosis.</em></p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18332553 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Bistability and Hysteresis in Gut Dysbiosis: A Spatiotemporal Mathematical Framework Integrating Phage Dynamics and Metabolic Feedback Shibah, Sami Rashid Mohammed <p><em>The transition from intestinal eubiosis to dysbiosis represents a critical phase shift in a complex adaptive ecosystem, often characterized by hysteresis and resistance to reversal. This manuscript advances beyond descriptive frameworks to propose a rigorous, falsifiable mathematical model of gut microbiota dynamics. We integrate Generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) equations with reaction-diffusion terms to account for spatial heterogeneity along the luminal-mucosal axis. Furthermore, we introduce a coupled metabolic feedback loop linking Short-Chain Fatty Acid (SCFA) concentrations to microbial resilience and explicitly model bacteriophage-host predator-prey dynamics as a mechanism for targeted therapeutic intervention. The model is calibrated using parameters derived from human metagenomic datasets (e.g., GMrepo and Human Microbiome Project), including time-series abundance data for beneficial (e.g., Faecalibacterium prausnitzii) and harmful (e.g., Escherichia coli) bacteria in IBD patients versus healthy controls. We delineate a multi-stage therapeutic protocol that leverages the concept of "tipping points," proposing that successful treatment requires pushing the ecosystem across a separatrix of bistability. This framework provides reproducible Python code for simulation, parameter fitting, and Bayesian inference, establishing quantitative biomarkers for early warning signals of dysbiosis.</em></p> |
| title | Bistability and Hysteresis in Gut Dysbiosis: A Spatiotemporal Mathematical Framework Integrating Phage Dynamics and Metabolic Feedback |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18332553 |