Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers

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Autores principales: Guo, Yutong, Ayeri, Tolga, Van Puijenbroek, Peter, Strokal, Maryna
Formato: Recurso digital
Publicado: Zenodo 2024
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author Guo, Yutong
Ayeri, Tolga
Van Puijenbroek, Peter
Strokal, Maryna
author_facet Guo, Yutong
Ayeri, Tolga
Van Puijenbroek, Peter
Strokal, Maryna
contents Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for improvements in societal practices by 2030. For an urbanizing world, this is especially relevant for the usage of centralized sanitation systems with treatment facilities (SDG6) and plastic consumption by the population (SDG12), which could be important sources of microplastics in rivers. However, the effects of those practices on future river pollution with microplastics are not well understood. This research aims to develop scenarios that incorporate those practices for quantifying their effects on river pollution with microplastics under future urbanization trends globally, and at the sub-basin scale during the period of 2010-2100 with a time step of 10 years. The MARINA-Plastics model (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs) was used to quantify inputs of microplastics to over 10,000 rivers from sewage systems and open defecation under the baseline scenario of Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2. Next, we developed and applied three new scenarios attempting to implement increased sewage connections with improved treatment (reflecting SDG 6 sanitation practices) and reduced per capita microplastic consumption (reflecting SDG12 practices to avoid waste generation), in isolation and together, under the baseline situation. Modelling results show that Europe and Asia were the two major contributors to global microplastic pollution, and Africa's contribution will increase and exceed Europe's in the future. Increasing the centralized sanitation systems with better treatment will have long-term reduction effects on global microplastic pollution (after 2060). Reducing microplastic usage will reduce global microplastic pollution in the short term (before 2030). Combining both practices is the most effective way to mitigate future microplastic pollution in the long and short terms. Our insights could support policymaking in the implementation of SDGs 6 and 12 oriented practices over time for microplastic reduction in different regions. Also see: https://micro2024.sciencesconf.org/548359/document
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spellingShingle Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
Guo, Yutong
Ayeri, Tolga
Van Puijenbroek, Peter
Strokal, Maryna
Global
Long and short terms
MARINA
Microplastics
Plastics model
Rivers
SDGs
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for improvements in societal practices by 2030. For an urbanizing world, this is especially relevant for the usage of centralized sanitation systems with treatment facilities (SDG6) and plastic consumption by the population (SDG12), which could be important sources of microplastics in rivers. However, the effects of those practices on future river pollution with microplastics are not well understood. This research aims to develop scenarios that incorporate those practices for quantifying their effects on river pollution with microplastics under future urbanization trends globally, and at the sub-basin scale during the period of 2010-2100 with a time step of 10 years. The MARINA-Plastics model (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs) was used to quantify inputs of microplastics to over 10,000 rivers from sewage systems and open defecation under the baseline scenario of Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2. Next, we developed and applied three new scenarios attempting to implement increased sewage connections with improved treatment (reflecting SDG 6 sanitation practices) and reduced per capita microplastic consumption (reflecting SDG12 practices to avoid waste generation), in isolation and together, under the baseline situation. Modelling results show that Europe and Asia were the two major contributors to global microplastic pollution, and Africa's contribution will increase and exceed Europe's in the future. Increasing the centralized sanitation systems with better treatment will have long-term reduction effects on global microplastic pollution (after 2060). Reducing microplastic usage will reduce global microplastic pollution in the short term (before 2030). Combining both practices is the most effective way to mitigate future microplastic pollution in the long and short terms. Our insights could support policymaking in the implementation of SDGs 6 and 12 oriented practices over time for microplastic reduction in different regions. Also see: https://micro2024.sciencesconf.org/548359/document
title Scenarios for future microplastic pollution reduction: an integrated modeling approach for over 10,000 rivers
topic Global
Long and short terms
MARINA
Microplastics
Plastics model
Rivers
SDGs
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18389937