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| Format: | Recurso digital |
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Zenodo
2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18489273 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p>Abstract:<br>This study examines the potential impacts of adopting Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) on Ethiopia's transport sector from 2026 to 2035 using the Energy Modelling Platform for Ethiopia (EMP-E). Three scenarios are evaluated: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) trajectory relying on conventional fossil fuels; an EV uptake scenario; and a combined EV+NGV scenario. The analysis focuses on energy demand, fuel import dependency, system costs, electricity generation requirements, and CO₂ emission reductions.</p> <p>Results indicate that aggressive electrification delivers the most significant benefits, reducing transport emissions by 17.3% by 2035 compared to BAU, supported by Ethiopia's hydropower-dominated grid. The combined EV+NGV scenario achieves a 53.1% reduction, though NGVs offer only moderate gains primarily in heavy-duty bus segments. However, EV adoption requires substantial additional investment—over USD 5 billion more than BAU—driven by higher upfront costs across all vehicle types, especially cars and motorcycles.</p> <p>The study concludes that EVs should be prioritized as Ethiopia's core decarbonization strategy, with early focus on buses, minibuses, taxis, and motorcycles. NGVs are recommended only as a short-term, niche option where charging infrastructure is limited. Policy recommendations include integrating EV rollout with power system planning, maintaining incentives for EVs, and controlling imports of internal combustion engine vehicles.</p> <p>Keywords: Ethiopia, transport decarbonization, electric vehicles, natural gas vehicles, energy modeling, emission reduction, energy policy</p>