The Causal Hourglass: A Geometric Framework for Node Formation in Relational Causality
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| Formato: | Recurso digital |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866902309670223872 |
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| author | Wilcox, Jeffery |
| author_facet | Wilcox, Jeffery |
| contents | <p><strong>The Causal Hourglass</strong> introduces a formal, substrate-independent framework for understanding how events form within relational causal webs. The model characterizes causation as a dynamic process that transitions between probabilistic openness and effective determinism through a three-phase geometry: convergence of possibility space, <strong>Effective Deterministic Closure (EDC)</strong>, and constrained reopening.</p> <p>Rather than treating determinism and probability as ontologically distinct regimes, the framework models them as context-dependent phases within causal processes. This transition is formalized using <strong>contextual entropy</strong>, relevance kernels that weight historical influence, and time-varying environmental coupling. Systems approaching EDC exhibit local minima in contextual entropy and coupling strength, corresponding to temporary effective isolation and increased predictability.</p> <p>The framework is intentionally cross-domain and applies to physical, biological, cognitive, and historical systems without relying on domain-specific laws. A computational toy model is provided to illustrate the dynamics and to generate empirically testable signatures, including entropy minima, loss of intervention efficacy near closure, and constrained post-event divergence.</p> <p>This work contributes to philosophy of science and causation by offering a unified account of inevitability, intervention timing, and the apparent emergence of conservation laws, while remaining compatible with existing physical theories within their domains of applicability.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18517838 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | The Causal Hourglass: A Geometric Framework for Node Formation in Relational Causality Wilcox, Jeffery causality; causal modeling; relational causality; complex systems; emergence; determinism; probability; effective deterministic closure; contextual entropy; intervention efficacy; temporal asymmetry; philosophy of science; philosophy of causation; law emergence <p><strong>The Causal Hourglass</strong> introduces a formal, substrate-independent framework for understanding how events form within relational causal webs. The model characterizes causation as a dynamic process that transitions between probabilistic openness and effective determinism through a three-phase geometry: convergence of possibility space, <strong>Effective Deterministic Closure (EDC)</strong>, and constrained reopening.</p> <p>Rather than treating determinism and probability as ontologically distinct regimes, the framework models them as context-dependent phases within causal processes. This transition is formalized using <strong>contextual entropy</strong>, relevance kernels that weight historical influence, and time-varying environmental coupling. Systems approaching EDC exhibit local minima in contextual entropy and coupling strength, corresponding to temporary effective isolation and increased predictability.</p> <p>The framework is intentionally cross-domain and applies to physical, biological, cognitive, and historical systems without relying on domain-specific laws. A computational toy model is provided to illustrate the dynamics and to generate empirically testable signatures, including entropy minima, loss of intervention efficacy near closure, and constrained post-event divergence.</p> <p>This work contributes to philosophy of science and causation by offering a unified account of inevitability, intervention timing, and the apparent emergence of conservation laws, while remaining compatible with existing physical theories within their domains of applicability.</p> |
| title | The Causal Hourglass: A Geometric Framework for Node Formation in Relational Causality |
| topic | causality; causal modeling; relational causality; complex systems; emergence; determinism; probability; effective deterministic closure; contextual entropy; intervention efficacy; temporal asymmetry; philosophy of science; philosophy of causation; law emergence |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18517838 |