Cosmological Time Bombs: From Vaidya to FRW

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Main Authors: Yates, Brandon, Chang, Tzu-Yi
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Published: Zenodo 2026
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author Yates, Brandon
Chang, Tzu-Yi
author_facet Yates, Brandon
Chang, Tzu-Yi
contents <p>Israel-Darmois junction conditions matching a Vaidya exterior to an FRW interior yield H = Ṁ/M: the Hubble parameter equals the fractional mass growth rate. Constant fractional growth (α = 1) gives w = −1 exactly, reproducing ΛCDM from boundary geometry. Joint analysis of 1701 Pantheon+ supernovae, DESI DR2 BAO, and Planck CMB priors prefers two discrete growth-rate enhancements at zc ≈ 0.62 and zc ≈ 0.15, with the low-z feature preferred over ΛCDM at Δχ² = 26.8 (5.2σ, 1 dof); mock-calibrated significance from 38,920 null catalogs is 3.7σ. Nested sampling with free curvature returns Bayes factors exceeding 1,500:1 over oΛCDM under wide priors (8,000:1 physical) and 3,670:1 over w₀wₐ. Three independent compilations achieve H₀ spread 0.2 km/s/Mpc. Both features are isotropic across six hemisphere splits (weighted mean 5.7σ, all tensions < 0.6σ) and the signal saturates at N = 2. The model predicts 3–4% fσ₈ suppression at z ≈ 0.5–0.7, testable with DESI DR2.</p> <p> </p> <p>Correspondence: Bmichaelyates@gmail.com</p>
format Recurso digital
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publishDate 2026
publisher Zenodo
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spellingShingle Cosmological Time Bombs: From Vaidya to FRW
Yates, Brandon
Chang, Tzu-Yi
Vaidya-FRW junction conditions
dark energy
Israel-Darmois formalism
baryon acoustic oscillations
Type Ia supernovae
cosmological constant
isotropy
curvature
Bayesian model comparison
nested sampling
<p>Israel-Darmois junction conditions matching a Vaidya exterior to an FRW interior yield H = Ṁ/M: the Hubble parameter equals the fractional mass growth rate. Constant fractional growth (α = 1) gives w = −1 exactly, reproducing ΛCDM from boundary geometry. Joint analysis of 1701 Pantheon+ supernovae, DESI DR2 BAO, and Planck CMB priors prefers two discrete growth-rate enhancements at zc ≈ 0.62 and zc ≈ 0.15, with the low-z feature preferred over ΛCDM at Δχ² = 26.8 (5.2σ, 1 dof); mock-calibrated significance from 38,920 null catalogs is 3.7σ. Nested sampling with free curvature returns Bayes factors exceeding 1,500:1 over oΛCDM under wide priors (8,000:1 physical) and 3,670:1 over w₀wₐ. Three independent compilations achieve H₀ spread 0.2 km/s/Mpc. Both features are isotropic across six hemisphere splits (weighted mean 5.7σ, all tensions < 0.6σ) and the signal saturates at N = 2. The model predicts 3–4% fσ₈ suppression at z ≈ 0.5–0.7, testable with DESI DR2.</p> <p> </p> <p>Correspondence: Bmichaelyates@gmail.com</p>
title Cosmological Time Bombs: From Vaidya to FRW
topic Vaidya-FRW junction conditions
dark energy
Israel-Darmois formalism
baryon acoustic oscillations
Type Ia supernovae
cosmological constant
isotropy
curvature
Bayesian model comparison
nested sampling
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18719778