Monetary Regime and the Acceleration Paradox: PLN vs EUR Counterfactual
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901763957719040 |
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| author | Maciaszek, Mateusz |
| author_facet | Maciaszek, Mateusz |
| contents | <h2>Monetary Regime and the Acceleration Paradox: PLN vs EUR Counterfactual in a Small Open Economy</h2> <p><strong>Author</strong>: Mateusz Maciaszek</p> <h3>Summary</h3> <p>Tests whether the acceleration paradox (UBI catalyzes automation) requires monetary sovereignty, using 1,260 Monte Carlo simulations comparing PLN (NBP Taylor rule + floating exchange rate) vs EUR (exogenous ECB + SGP fiscal constraint).</p> <h3>Key findings</h3> <ul> <li><strong>PLN</strong>: NBP stabilizes employment (~8%) but suppresses adoption (~13%). Critical point at UBI=500 PLN.</li> <li><strong>EUR with SGP</strong>: Transient UBI burst raises adoption to 19%, but SGP progressively eliminates UBI spending (effective UBI decays from ~1,200 to ~10 PLN by month 120). Permanent deflation (-25%), mass unemployment (78%).</li> <li><strong>All legislated UBI ≥ 1,250 PLN produce identical EUR outcomes</strong> — SGP saturates the system.</li> <li>PLN dominates on employment and equality; EUR's modest adoption advantage (+6pp) comes at catastrophic social cost.</li> </ul> <h3>Contents</h3> <ul> <li><code>latex/paper_en.tex</code> — Full paper (10 pages)</li> <li><code>latex/paper_en.pdf</code> — Compiled PDF</li> <li><code>analysis/python/</code> — 3 analysis scripts (sweep, welfare, charts)</li> <li><code>simulations/results/</code> — 84 CSV files (21 BDP × 2 regimes × 30 seeds, terminal + timeseries)</li> <li><code>figures/</code> — 6 publication-quality PNG figures</li> </ul> <h3>Model</h3> <p>SFC-ABM: 10,000 firms × 6 sectors (GUS 2024) × Watts-Strogatz network × 120 months. Engine: <a href="https://github.com/complexity-econ/core">complexity-econ/core</a></p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18741006 |
| institution | Zenodo |
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| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Monetary Regime and the Acceleration Paradox: PLN vs EUR Counterfactual Maciaszek, Mateusz agent-based model stock-flow consistent monetary regime eurozone UBI automation complexity economics <h2>Monetary Regime and the Acceleration Paradox: PLN vs EUR Counterfactual in a Small Open Economy</h2> <p><strong>Author</strong>: Mateusz Maciaszek</p> <h3>Summary</h3> <p>Tests whether the acceleration paradox (UBI catalyzes automation) requires monetary sovereignty, using 1,260 Monte Carlo simulations comparing PLN (NBP Taylor rule + floating exchange rate) vs EUR (exogenous ECB + SGP fiscal constraint).</p> <h3>Key findings</h3> <ul> <li><strong>PLN</strong>: NBP stabilizes employment (~8%) but suppresses adoption (~13%). Critical point at UBI=500 PLN.</li> <li><strong>EUR with SGP</strong>: Transient UBI burst raises adoption to 19%, but SGP progressively eliminates UBI spending (effective UBI decays from ~1,200 to ~10 PLN by month 120). Permanent deflation (-25%), mass unemployment (78%).</li> <li><strong>All legislated UBI ≥ 1,250 PLN produce identical EUR outcomes</strong> — SGP saturates the system.</li> <li>PLN dominates on employment and equality; EUR's modest adoption advantage (+6pp) comes at catastrophic social cost.</li> </ul> <h3>Contents</h3> <ul> <li><code>latex/paper_en.tex</code> — Full paper (10 pages)</li> <li><code>latex/paper_en.pdf</code> — Compiled PDF</li> <li><code>analysis/python/</code> — 3 analysis scripts (sweep, welfare, charts)</li> <li><code>simulations/results/</code> — 84 CSV files (21 BDP × 2 regimes × 30 seeds, terminal + timeseries)</li> <li><code>figures/</code> — 6 publication-quality PNG figures</li> </ul> <h3>Model</h3> <p>SFC-ABM: 10,000 firms × 6 sectors (GUS 2024) × Watts-Strogatz network × 120 months. Engine: <a href="https://github.com/complexity-econ/core">complexity-econ/core</a></p> |
| title | Monetary Regime and the Acceleration Paradox: PLN vs EUR Counterfactual |
| topic | agent-based model stock-flow consistent monetary regime eurozone UBI automation complexity economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18741006 |