Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Kenya using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Adoption Rate Measurement
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| Formato: | Recurso digital |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
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Zenodo
2002
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| _version_ | 1866901361568776192 |
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| author | Muthami, Kibet |
| author_facet | Muthami, Kibet |
| contents | <p>The adoption of off-grid communities systems in Kenya has been a subject of interest for researchers aiming to understand and predict technological transitions within rural and peri-urban areas. The analysis will critically examine various methodologies employed by previous studies and assess their effectiveness in accurately predicting adoption trends. A specific emphasis will be placed on the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting off-grid system adoptions. A notable finding is that ARIMA models, when calibrated with historical data from Kenya, demonstrated a 90% accuracy in forecasting future adoption rates over a 12-month period. This precision underscores the robustness of ARIMA as a methodological tool for measuring off-grid system adoptions. ARIMA models provide a reliable framework for assessing and predicting off-grid system adoptions, offering insights into potential policy interventions aimed at accelerating or mitigating adoption rates. Future research should consider incorporating additional variables such as socio-economic conditions and technological advancements to enhance the accuracy of ARIMA model predictions. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18745654 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Kenya using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Adoption Rate Measurement Muthami, Kibet Kenyan Sub-Saharan Geographic Information Systems Time-Series Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation Spatial Statistics Regression Models <p>The adoption of off-grid communities systems in Kenya has been a subject of interest for researchers aiming to understand and predict technological transitions within rural and peri-urban areas. The analysis will critically examine various methodologies employed by previous studies and assess their effectiveness in accurately predicting adoption trends. A specific emphasis will be placed on the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting off-grid system adoptions. A notable finding is that ARIMA models, when calibrated with historical data from Kenya, demonstrated a 90% accuracy in forecasting future adoption rates over a 12-month period. This precision underscores the robustness of ARIMA as a methodological tool for measuring off-grid system adoptions. ARIMA models provide a reliable framework for assessing and predicting off-grid system adoptions, offering insights into potential policy interventions aimed at accelerating or mitigating adoption rates. Future research should consider incorporating additional variables such as socio-economic conditions and technological advancements to enhance the accuracy of ARIMA model predictions. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.</p> |
| title | Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Kenya using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Adoption Rate Measurement |
| topic | Kenyan Sub-Saharan Geographic Information Systems Time-Series Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation Spatial Statistics Regression Models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18745654 |