The Triple Lock: A Model of Sequential Bio-Geochemical Filters on the Path to Complex Life
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | inglese |
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Zenodo
2026
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| _version_ | 1866901666036449280 |
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| author | Igoshev, Tema |
| author_facet | Igoshev, Tema |
| contents | <p>We propose a physically motivated replacement for the speculative factors fl × fi in the Drake Equation. The Triple Lock Index (TLI) evaluates the probability of<br>complex (eukaryotic) life through three sequential filters: spectral compatibility with oxygenic photosynthesis (Filter 1), a sustained phosphorus cycle via plate tectonics<br>(Filter 2), and an oceanic habitable zone permitting eukaryogenesis under stellar radiation (Filter 3). Applied to a catalogue of 13 worlds, TLI spans five orders of<br>magnitude—from ∼5% (Kepler-442b) to < 10−5% (Proxima b)—identifying eight distinct failure patterns. The model correctly predicts Venus’s failure mode (hydro-<br>sphere loss at Filter 2) in a blind run, generates falsifiable predictions with quan-titative thresholds, and yields N ≈ 56 civilisations in the Galaxy when integrated<br>into the Drake Equation—consistent with the Fermi Paradox. Monte Carlo analysis (10,000 iterations) reveals that TLI uncertainty for well-characterised worlds is ∼28–<br>38×, while for M-dwarf planets it reaches 104–107×, driven by unconstrained XUV fluxes—identifying these as priority observational targets for JWST/HWO/LIFE.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18810183 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | The Triple Lock: A Model of Sequential Bio-Geochemical Filters on the Path to Complex Life Igoshev, Tema Great Filter Fermi Paradox photosynthesis phosphorus cycle eukaryogenesis M-dwarf habitability priority effects <p>We propose a physically motivated replacement for the speculative factors fl × fi in the Drake Equation. The Triple Lock Index (TLI) evaluates the probability of<br>complex (eukaryotic) life through three sequential filters: spectral compatibility with oxygenic photosynthesis (Filter 1), a sustained phosphorus cycle via plate tectonics<br>(Filter 2), and an oceanic habitable zone permitting eukaryogenesis under stellar radiation (Filter 3). Applied to a catalogue of 13 worlds, TLI spans five orders of<br>magnitude—from ∼5% (Kepler-442b) to < 10−5% (Proxima b)—identifying eight distinct failure patterns. The model correctly predicts Venus’s failure mode (hydro-<br>sphere loss at Filter 2) in a blind run, generates falsifiable predictions with quan-titative thresholds, and yields N ≈ 56 civilisations in the Galaxy when integrated<br>into the Drake Equation—consistent with the Fermi Paradox. Monte Carlo analysis (10,000 iterations) reveals that TLI uncertainty for well-characterised worlds is ∼28–<br>38×, while for M-dwarf planets it reaches 104–107×, driven by unconstrained XUV fluxes—identifying these as priority observational targets for JWST/HWO/LIFE.</p> |
| title | The Triple Lock: A Model of Sequential Bio-Geochemical Filters on the Path to Complex Life |
| topic | Great Filter Fermi Paradox photosynthesis phosphorus cycle eukaryogenesis M-dwarf habitability priority effects |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18810183 |