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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Zenodo
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18890870 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p>We develop a Bayesian posterior probability model for assessing the likelihood that a drill-core intercept of gold mineralization at depth belongs to a super-large (≥100 t Au) orogenic deposit system. Unlike previous exponential-decay formulations, we employ logistic survival functions calibrated to the fault-valve mechanism (Sibson, 1988; 2001), with physically motivated critical closure depths (Hc) that represent the statistical half-survival depth for each system class. All probabilities are defined within a unified probability space: a targeted exploration site with surface anomalies, where the prior P₀(Large) = 0.01 represents the empirical base rate. The model shows that at 2500 m depth, the posterior confidence is 65–100% (central: 97.3%), depending on the steepness parameter kS. The logistic formulation eliminates three vulnerabilities of exponential models: (1) zero-depth intercept bias, (2) conflation of modern depth with paleo-crustal position, and (3) circular reasoning via hard-coded decay constants. The critical closure depth Hc,S = 1000 m is derived from first principles: Hc = Hpaleo,crit − Δerosion ≈ 6000 − 5000 = 1000 m. Source code and data: https://github.com/Ruqing1963/bayesian-depth-confidence-model</p>