THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN LEAN MANUFACTURING
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866902056476868608 |
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| author | Balasubramaniam, Sujai |
| author_facet | Balasubramaniam, Sujai |
| contents | <p><span lang="EN-US">The Bullwhip Effect represents a critical challenge in lean manufacturing and supply chain management, wherein minor fluctuations in end-customer demand are progressively amplified as one moves upstream through the supply chain. This amplification leads to overproduction, excessive safety stock, idle capacity, and elevated operational costs — all directly opposing core lean principles. This paper delivers a rigorous mathematical derivation using the Chen et al. (2000) framework with Simple Moving Average (SMA) forecasting and an order-up-to policy. A comprehensive FMCG shampoo supply chain case study quantifies multi-stage variance amplification (Bullwhip Ratio = 4 per stage). Statistical analyses including sensitivity heatmaps, Q-Q plots, KDE distributions, and 3D surface plots accompany actionable mitigation strategies. Results confirm that reducing lead time (L) and increasing forecast window (n) are the two highest-leverage interventions, with combined application reducing BWR from 4.0 to approximately 1.33 — a 66.7% variance reduction.</span></p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18891121 |
| institution | Zenodo |
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| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN LEAN MANUFACTURING Balasubramaniam, Sujai Bullwhip Effect · Lean Manufacturing · Variance Amplification · Supply Chain · Order-Up-To Policy · Moving Average Forecasting · FMCG · CPFR · VMI · Six Sigma <p><span lang="EN-US">The Bullwhip Effect represents a critical challenge in lean manufacturing and supply chain management, wherein minor fluctuations in end-customer demand are progressively amplified as one moves upstream through the supply chain. This amplification leads to overproduction, excessive safety stock, idle capacity, and elevated operational costs — all directly opposing core lean principles. This paper delivers a rigorous mathematical derivation using the Chen et al. (2000) framework with Simple Moving Average (SMA) forecasting and an order-up-to policy. A comprehensive FMCG shampoo supply chain case study quantifies multi-stage variance amplification (Bullwhip Ratio = 4 per stage). Statistical analyses including sensitivity heatmaps, Q-Q plots, KDE distributions, and 3D surface plots accompany actionable mitigation strategies. Results confirm that reducing lead time (L) and increasing forecast window (n) are the two highest-leverage interventions, with combined application reducing BWR from 4.0 to approximately 1.33 — a 66.7% variance reduction.</span></p> |
| title | THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN LEAN MANUFACTURING |
| topic | Bullwhip Effect · Lean Manufacturing · Variance Amplification · Supply Chain · Order-Up-To Policy · Moving Average Forecasting · FMCG · CPFR · VMI · Six Sigma |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18891121 |