Time-Series Forecasting Model for Efficiency Gains in Community Health Centres in Tanzania

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Main Authors: Ngowi, Chituwo, Kinyanjui, Kamili, Siingo, Simba
Format: Recurso digital
Language:English
Published: Zenodo 2011
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author Ngowi, Chituwo
Kinyanjui, Kamili
Siingo, Simba
author_facet Ngowi, Chituwo
Kinyanjui, Kamili
Siingo, Simba
contents <p>Community health centres in Tanzania have been established to improve access to healthcare services, yet their operational efficiency remains an area of concern. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse data from community health centre records in Tanzania. The model included ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) for predicting future performance based on historical trends. The ARIMA model showed a positive trend in efficiency gains over the period, with an estimated increase of 15% in service delivery effectiveness predicted by the end of the forecast horizon. This study provides evidence that time-series forecasting can be used effectively to assess and predict operational efficiencies in community health centres within Tanzania. Health policymakers should consider implementing similar models for continuous monitoring and improvement of service delivery efficiency. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.</p>
format Recurso digital
id zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18917529
institution Zenodo
language eng
publishDate 2011
publisher Zenodo
record_format zenodo
spellingShingle Time-Series Forecasting Model for Efficiency Gains in Community Health Centres in Tanzania
Ngowi, Chituwo
Kinyanjui, Kamili
Siingo, Simba
African geography
community health centres
forecasting models
time-series analysis
econometrics
healthcare systems
performance indicators
<p>Community health centres in Tanzania have been established to improve access to healthcare services, yet their operational efficiency remains an area of concern. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse data from community health centre records in Tanzania. The model included ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) for predicting future performance based on historical trends. The ARIMA model showed a positive trend in efficiency gains over the period, with an estimated increase of 15% in service delivery effectiveness predicted by the end of the forecast horizon. This study provides evidence that time-series forecasting can be used effectively to assess and predict operational efficiencies in community health centres within Tanzania. Health policymakers should consider implementing similar models for continuous monitoring and improvement of service delivery efficiency. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.</p>
title Time-Series Forecasting Model for Efficiency Gains in Community Health Centres in Tanzania
topic African geography
community health centres
forecasting models
time-series analysis
econometrics
healthcare systems
performance indicators
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18917529