White Paper / Preprint Why Mars Colonization Will Fail — And Why Large-Scale Orbital Engineering in the Solar System Must Be Prohibited A Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) Perspective
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | inglese |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901065931161600 |
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| author | Lukin, Roman |
| author_facet | Lukin, Roman |
| contents | <h1>Abstract</h1> <p><span> </span></p> <p>Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) predicts that any accelerating complex system collapses when the imposed rate of change (α) exceeds the system’s recovery capacity (γ), as formalized by the stability index</p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span><span> </span></p> <p>where C is structural complexity.</p> <p><span> </span></p> <p>Mars colonization represents an extreme case of forced acceleration on a planetary scale: human activity seeks to increase C (biosphere, infrastructure, technology) at a rate α ≈ 0.35 ± 0.10 yr<span>⁻</span>¹, far exceeding the natural Martian recovery capacity γ_Mars ≈ 0.05–0.10 yr<span>⁻</span>¹. This results in G_Mars ≈ 0.14–0.29 << 1, leading to rapid accumulation of irrecoverable structural debt and systemic collapse within 15–40 years of active exponential growth — long before a self-sustaining, multi-generational colony can be established.</p> <p><span> </span></p> <p>Large-scale orbital engineering (moving moons, asteroids, or planets) within the Solar System is even more dangerous: such interventions increase α across multiple coupled systems (Earth, Mars, asteroid belt, Jupiter resonances) by 10²–10<span>⁶</span> times the natural background, while no known mechanism exists to raise γ globally. GCST calculates integrated risk to Earth at ~5–30% per major experiment, with consequences ranging from periodic impacts to long-term biospheric R-collapse. Until planetary-scale protective mechanisms capable of maintaining G ≥ 1 are developed, such activities are equivalent to inducing artificial multi-planetary R-collapse and must be prohibited.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18974172 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | White Paper / Preprint Why Mars Colonization Will Fail — And Why Large-Scale Orbital Engineering in the Solar System Must Be Prohibited A Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) Perspective Lukin, Roman Complexity acceleration, Great Stability Filter, Astrobiology, Planetary protection, Solar System stability, Orbital engineering, Low-γ trap, Structural debt, Rate-Induced Collapse, Mars colonization, Global Complexity–Stability Theory, GCST, <h1>Abstract</h1> <p><span> </span></p> <p>Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) predicts that any accelerating complex system collapses when the imposed rate of change (α) exceeds the system’s recovery capacity (γ), as formalized by the stability index</p> <p><span> </span></p> <p><span></span><span> </span></p> <p>where C is structural complexity.</p> <p><span> </span></p> <p>Mars colonization represents an extreme case of forced acceleration on a planetary scale: human activity seeks to increase C (biosphere, infrastructure, technology) at a rate α ≈ 0.35 ± 0.10 yr<span>⁻</span>¹, far exceeding the natural Martian recovery capacity γ_Mars ≈ 0.05–0.10 yr<span>⁻</span>¹. This results in G_Mars ≈ 0.14–0.29 << 1, leading to rapid accumulation of irrecoverable structural debt and systemic collapse within 15–40 years of active exponential growth — long before a self-sustaining, multi-generational colony can be established.</p> <p><span> </span></p> <p>Large-scale orbital engineering (moving moons, asteroids, or planets) within the Solar System is even more dangerous: such interventions increase α across multiple coupled systems (Earth, Mars, asteroid belt, Jupiter resonances) by 10²–10<span>⁶</span> times the natural background, while no known mechanism exists to raise γ globally. GCST calculates integrated risk to Earth at ~5–30% per major experiment, with consequences ranging from periodic impacts to long-term biospheric R-collapse. Until planetary-scale protective mechanisms capable of maintaining G ≥ 1 are developed, such activities are equivalent to inducing artificial multi-planetary R-collapse and must be prohibited.</p> |
| title | White Paper / Preprint Why Mars Colonization Will Fail — And Why Large-Scale Orbital Engineering in the Solar System Must Be Prohibited A Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) Perspective |
| topic | Complexity acceleration, Great Stability Filter, Astrobiology, Planetary protection, Solar System stability, Orbital engineering, Low-γ trap, Structural debt, Rate-Induced Collapse, Mars colonization, Global Complexity–Stability Theory, GCST, |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18974172 |