Do Depreciations Matter More? Nonlinear Real Exchange Rate Effects in Turkiye's Automotive Trade with the EU
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | Antico inglese |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901342979620864 |
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| author | Derya Hekim |
| author_facet | Derya Hekim |
| contents | <p>This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate movements on Türkiye’s automotive trade balance with the European Union. Using quarterly data for the period 2002–2025 and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework, the analysis decomposes the real effective exchange rate into positive and negative partial sums to distinguish between the impacts of real depreciations and appreciations of the Turkish lira. The results provide strong evidence of long‑run and short‑run asymmetries: real depreciations significantly and persistently improve the automotive trade balance, whereas appreciations have weak and mostly insignificant effects. Dynamic multiplier analysis further shows that the trade balance responds much more strongly to depreciation shocks than to appreciation shocks, highlighting the importance of accounting for nonlinear adjustment in a sector that is deeply integrated into European value chains. Overall, the findings indicate that real depreciations play a pronounced trade‑enhancing role in Türkiye’s automotive sector, while appreciations have only limited effects, and they underscore the need to rely on sector‑level data and asymmetric specifications when evaluating exchange‑rate‑based trade policies.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19015923 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | ang |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Do Depreciations Matter More? Nonlinear Real Exchange Rate Effects in Turkiye's Automotive Trade with the EU Derya Hekim Automotive trade; asymmetry; European Union; NARDL; real exchange rate; trade balance <p>This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate movements on Türkiye’s automotive trade balance with the European Union. Using quarterly data for the period 2002–2025 and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework, the analysis decomposes the real effective exchange rate into positive and negative partial sums to distinguish between the impacts of real depreciations and appreciations of the Turkish lira. The results provide strong evidence of long‑run and short‑run asymmetries: real depreciations significantly and persistently improve the automotive trade balance, whereas appreciations have weak and mostly insignificant effects. Dynamic multiplier analysis further shows that the trade balance responds much more strongly to depreciation shocks than to appreciation shocks, highlighting the importance of accounting for nonlinear adjustment in a sector that is deeply integrated into European value chains. Overall, the findings indicate that real depreciations play a pronounced trade‑enhancing role in Türkiye’s automotive sector, while appreciations have only limited effects, and they underscore the need to rely on sector‑level data and asymmetric specifications when evaluating exchange‑rate‑based trade policies.</p> |
| title | Do Depreciations Matter More? Nonlinear Real Exchange Rate Effects in Turkiye's Automotive Trade with the EU |
| topic | Automotive trade; asymmetry; European Union; NARDL; real exchange rate; trade balance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19015923 |