Directional Collapse in Power Markets: Extreme RT–DA Spread Divergence in PJM

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Autore principale: Aizawa, Hiroaki
Natura: Recurso digital
Pubblicazione: Zenodo 2026
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author Aizawa, Hiroaki
author_facet Aizawa, Hiroaki
contents <p>This study presents empirical evidence of directional collapse in power markets using PJM RT–DA spread data.</p> <p> </p> <p>Conventional analyses focus on absolute levels such as price or load. However, this work shows that instability emerges from directional amplification rather than state changes.</p> <p> </p> <p>By identifying the time point with maximum cross-sectional dispersion, we demonstrate that collapse appears as extreme spatial divergence, with localized zones deviating to approximately −3000 while normal conditions remain around −1.</p> <p> </p> <p>The key finding is that both normal and collapse states share the same directional sign (RT < DA), but differ drastically in magnitude and spatial concentration.</p> <p> </p> <p>This reveals a structural mechanism of collapse that is not captured by conventional level-based indicators.</p> <p> </p> <p>All results are derived from publicly available PJM Data Miner datasets.</p>
format Recurso digital
id zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19109876
institution Zenodo
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publishDate 2026
publisher Zenodo
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spellingShingle Directional Collapse in Power Markets: Extreme RT–DA Spread Divergence in PJM
Aizawa, Hiroaki
power markets electricity markets PJM market instability price spread RT-DA spread complex systems system collapse spatial analysis
<p>This study presents empirical evidence of directional collapse in power markets using PJM RT–DA spread data.</p> <p> </p> <p>Conventional analyses focus on absolute levels such as price or load. However, this work shows that instability emerges from directional amplification rather than state changes.</p> <p> </p> <p>By identifying the time point with maximum cross-sectional dispersion, we demonstrate that collapse appears as extreme spatial divergence, with localized zones deviating to approximately −3000 while normal conditions remain around −1.</p> <p> </p> <p>The key finding is that both normal and collapse states share the same directional sign (RT < DA), but differ drastically in magnitude and spatial concentration.</p> <p> </p> <p>This reveals a structural mechanism of collapse that is not captured by conventional level-based indicators.</p> <p> </p> <p>All results are derived from publicly available PJM Data Miner datasets.</p>
title Directional Collapse in Power Markets: Extreme RT–DA Spread Divergence in PJM
topic power markets electricity markets PJM market instability price spread RT-DA spread complex systems system collapse spatial analysis
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19109876