Directional Collapse in Power Markets: Extreme RT–DA Spread Divergence in PJM
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901178178076672 |
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| author | Aizawa, Hiroaki |
| author_facet | Aizawa, Hiroaki |
| contents | <p>This study presents empirical evidence of directional collapse in power markets using PJM RT–DA spread data.</p> <p> </p> <p>Conventional analyses focus on absolute levels such as price or load. However, this work shows that instability emerges from directional amplification rather than state changes.</p> <p> </p> <p>By identifying the time point with maximum cross-sectional dispersion, we demonstrate that collapse appears as extreme spatial divergence, with localized zones deviating to approximately −3000 while normal conditions remain around −1.</p> <p> </p> <p>The key finding is that both normal and collapse states share the same directional sign (RT < DA), but differ drastically in magnitude and spatial concentration.</p> <p> </p> <p>This reveals a structural mechanism of collapse that is not captured by conventional level-based indicators.</p> <p> </p> <p>All results are derived from publicly available PJM Data Miner datasets.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19109876 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Directional Collapse in Power Markets: Extreme RT–DA Spread Divergence in PJM Aizawa, Hiroaki power markets electricity markets PJM market instability price spread RT-DA spread complex systems system collapse spatial analysis <p>This study presents empirical evidence of directional collapse in power markets using PJM RT–DA spread data.</p> <p> </p> <p>Conventional analyses focus on absolute levels such as price or load. However, this work shows that instability emerges from directional amplification rather than state changes.</p> <p> </p> <p>By identifying the time point with maximum cross-sectional dispersion, we demonstrate that collapse appears as extreme spatial divergence, with localized zones deviating to approximately −3000 while normal conditions remain around −1.</p> <p> </p> <p>The key finding is that both normal and collapse states share the same directional sign (RT < DA), but differ drastically in magnitude and spatial concentration.</p> <p> </p> <p>This reveals a structural mechanism of collapse that is not captured by conventional level-based indicators.</p> <p> </p> <p>All results are derived from publicly available PJM Data Miner datasets.</p> |
| title | Directional Collapse in Power Markets: Extreme RT–DA Spread Divergence in PJM |
| topic | power markets electricity markets PJM market instability price spread RT-DA spread complex systems system collapse spatial analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19109876 |