Replication of Structural Collapse Signal in Electricity Markets (dΩ/dt)

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Main Author: Aizawa, Hiroaki
Format: Recurso digital
Published: Zenodo 2026
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author Aizawa, Hiroaki
author_facet Aizawa, Hiroaki
contents <p>We investigate whether a simple directional metric, dΩ/dt, captures a reproducible structural imbalance pattern across electricity markets.</p> <p> </p> <p>Using real-time price and load data from CAISO (USA) and Germany (ENTSO-E), we define dΩ as the difference between log-changes in load and price and identify extreme negative events.</p> <p> </p> <p>Event-aligned analysis reveals a consistent collapse-and-recovery structure centered at detected points.</p> <p> </p> <p>The same structural pattern is observed across independent markets, indicating that dΩ/dt captures a cross-market structural imbalance signal.</p>
format Recurso digital
id zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19145268
institution Zenodo
language
publishDate 2026
publisher Zenodo
record_format zenodo
spellingShingle Replication of Structural Collapse Signal in Electricity Markets (dΩ/dt)
Aizawa, Hiroaki
dOmega structural-imbalance electricity-markets event-aligned-analysis CAISO ENTSO-E replication
<p>We investigate whether a simple directional metric, dΩ/dt, captures a reproducible structural imbalance pattern across electricity markets.</p> <p> </p> <p>Using real-time price and load data from CAISO (USA) and Germany (ENTSO-E), we define dΩ as the difference between log-changes in load and price and identify extreme negative events.</p> <p> </p> <p>Event-aligned analysis reveals a consistent collapse-and-recovery structure centered at detected points.</p> <p> </p> <p>The same structural pattern is observed across independent markets, indicating that dΩ/dt captures a cross-market structural imbalance signal.</p>
title Replication of Structural Collapse Signal in Electricity Markets (dΩ/dt)
topic dOmega structural-imbalance electricity-markets event-aligned-analysis CAISO ENTSO-E replication
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19145268