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Zenodo
2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19366652 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p>The first reflection coefficient |k1|, derived from Rabiner and Schafer's acoustic tube model of the human vocal tract (1978), is a domain-agnostic structural detector. Applied to currency and commodity markets, it measures whether a market is absorbing information or echoing it back.</p> <p>A healthy market is a soundproof room. Each day's price signal is absorbed and gone. A market under structural stress is a stone canyon. Yesterday's distress signal bounces back into today's price, which bounces into tomorrow's, which bounces into the next day. The market becomes an echo chamber of its own crisis. |k1| measures how hard the walls have become.</p> <p>The instrument requires no distributional assumption, no calibration, and no domain knowledge. The unit circle is the boundary by physics, not by fitting. It is derived from the Levinson-Durbin recursion — the same mathematical structure Rabiner and Schafer used to model acoustic reflection at vocal tract junctions.</p> <p>The note develops the acoustic intuition, ties it to the speech-processing origin of the reflection coefficient, and validates it against 39 years of Brent crude oil prices and 28 years of China iron ore import values. A joint alert framework combining the black market premium chamber and the commodity price chamber identifies three operational states: Watch, Alert, and Demand Destruction.</p> <p>Keywords: reflection coefficient, k1, Levinson-Durbin, linear prediction, black market premium, sovereign stress, reserve crisis, echo chamber, vocal tract, commodity markets</p>