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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Zenodo
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19557838 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p>Canon v5.0 is a structural integrity diagnostic for tropical cyclones. It does not forecast<br>landfall location, track, or timing. It forecasts the internal organisational state of a storm:<br>whether the system is intensifying coherently, approaching peak maturity, or beginning structural breakdown. Applied to Hurricane Katrina (2005) using NHC best-track data, Canon v5.0<br>correctly detects the onset of rapid intensification on 27 August, peak structural organisation<br>on 28 August (Category 5, 902 mb), and pre-landfall structural collapse beginning in the<br>hours before the 29 August landfall — all from the storm’s internal pressure and vorticity<br>structure alone. These transitions were not fully anticipated by real-time 2005 operational<br>intensity forecasts, which underestimated the peak intensity and the speed of post-landfall<br>structural collapse. The Canon framework derives these detections from first principles: two<br>axioms (motion is intrinsic; scale invariance is universal) applied through a pressure hierarchy,<br>a signed drift integrator tracking persistent quadrant asymmetry, and a maturity operator<br>encoding the storm’s accumulated organisational history</p>