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Zenodo
2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19561714 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Cross-domain empirical evidence that accumulated stress history predicts future institutional distress independently of deposit insurance.</strong> Using three regulatory datasets — <strong>5,706 US credit unions</strong> (NCUA, 2018–2024), <strong>5,684 US commercial banks</strong> (FDIC, 2018–2024), and <strong>108 EU/EEA banks</strong> (EBA, 2024–2025) — we construct H_i, a rolling measure of accumulated stress, and show it predicts distress at t+1 with <strong>r = +0.173</strong> (credit unions, N = 109,518), <strong>r = +0.310</strong> (commercial banks, N = 110,553), and <strong>r = +0.972</strong> (European banks, N = 313), all at p < 0.001. Robustness tests confirm: <strong>perfect monotone decay</strong> across 8 quarterly horizons (Spearman ρ = −1.000), <strong>positive out-of-sample R²</strong> (train 2018–2022, test 2023–2024), and <strong>incremental predictive value</strong> over Altman-style ratios (F = 142,967, p < 10⁻¹⁶). A <strong>predictor comparison</strong> demonstrates that every model successfully predicting distress OOS uses temporal information (memory), while static ratio models fail catastrophically (Altman OOS R² = −2.04). Diamond-Dybvig (1983, Nobel 2022) correctly identified the coordination vulnerability of maturity transformation and the role of deposit insurance. This paper identifies the <strong>complementary memory dimension</strong> that coordination models leave open: institutions accumulate structural stress over time, and this accumulation predicts future distress regardless of whether the coordination problem has been solved. Pre-registered (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19558034). Companion to ZLT-P83 (credit union field data, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19477699).</p> <p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]"><strong>Keywords:</strong> Zero Leap Theory, ZLT, structural memory, accumulated stress, financial distress prediction, Diamond-Dybvig, coordination failure, deposit insurance, credit unions, commercial banks, European banks, NCUA, FDIC, EBA, Altman Z-score, Shumway hazard model, out-of-sample prediction, horizon decay, non-performing loans, hysteresis, cross-domain replication</p>