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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
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Zenodo
2026
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| Accesso online: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19633097 |
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| _version_ | 1866901261700300800 |
|---|---|
| author | riera, jordi |
| author_facet | riera, jordi |
| contents | <p>This note formalizes an Expected Value (EV) framework for macro trades designed to<br>hedge or profit from U.S. sovereign debt instability. By partitioning the state space into<br>three distinct regimes (Base, Stress, and Debt Spiral), we derive a probability threshold<br>for positive expectancy. We demonstrate that in highly convex setups, the requirement for<br>a “Debt Spiral” scenario to justify a position is often significantly lower than consensus<br>intuition suggests.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19633097 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Debt Spiral EV Note Expected Value of Macro Trades under Sovereign Stress riera, jordi <p>This note formalizes an Expected Value (EV) framework for macro trades designed to<br>hedge or profit from U.S. sovereign debt instability. By partitioning the state space into<br>three distinct regimes (Base, Stress, and Debt Spiral), we derive a probability threshold<br>for positive expectancy. We demonstrate that in highly convex setups, the requirement for<br>a “Debt Spiral” scenario to justify a position is often significantly lower than consensus<br>intuition suggests.</p> |
| title | Debt Spiral EV Note Expected Value of Macro Trades under Sovereign Stress |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19633097 |