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| Format: | Recurso digital |
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Zenodo
2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19633097 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p>This note formalizes an Expected Value (EV) framework for macro trades designed to<br>hedge or profit from U.S. sovereign debt instability. By partitioning the state space into<br>three distinct regimes (Base, Stress, and Debt Spiral), we derive a probability threshold<br>for positive expectancy. We demonstrate that in highly convex setups, the requirement for<br>a “Debt Spiral” scenario to justify a position is often significantly lower than consensus<br>intuition suggests.</p>