Winter-Chill Attribution and CMIP6 Projections of ENSO-Driven Olive Yield Collapse on the Hyper-Arid Peruvian Coast — Reproducibility Archive

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Autori principali: Quille-Mamani, Javier, Huanuqueño-Murillo, José, Quispe-Tito, David, Huayna-Felipe, German, Espinoza-Molina, Jorge, Acosta-Caipa, Karina, Pérez-Cubas, Heler Samir, Ingol-Blanco, Eusebio, Ramos-Fernández, Lia, Pino-Vargas, Edwin
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Pubblicazione: Zenodo 2026
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author Quille-Mamani, Javier
Huanuqueño-Murillo, José
Quispe-Tito, David
Huayna-Felipe, German
Espinoza-Molina, Jorge
Acosta-Caipa, Karina
Pérez-Cubas, Heler Samir
Ingol-Blanco, Eusebio
Ramos-Fernández, Lia
Pino-Vargas, Edwin
author_facet Quille-Mamani, Javier
Huanuqueño-Murillo, José
Quispe-Tito, David
Huayna-Felipe, German
Espinoza-Molina, Jorge
Acosta-Caipa, Karina
Pérez-Cubas, Heler Samir
Ingol-Blanco, Eusebio
Ramos-Fernández, Lia
Pino-Vargas, Edwin
contents Code, intermediate data, figures and tables supporting the AgriEngineering (MDPI) paper on winter-chill attribution and CMIP6 projections of ENSO-driven olive yield collapse in La Yarada, Tacna, Peru (18°S). Includes in-situ daily meteorology (2015-2025), Sentinel-2 vegetation indices, Dynamic-Model chill-portion preprocessing, the year-level log-OLS yield model (R²_log=0.65, β_chill=-0.82), parcel-year mixed-model, closed-form Bayesian robustness (BF10=15.9), counterfactual attribution of the 2016/2024 failure years, and CMIP6 delta-method projections (SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP5-8.5) identifying a chill-collapse threshold at ΔT_winter ≈ +1.25 °C. Parcel-level annual yields are not redistributed due to commercial sensitivity; the aggregated year-level dataset is sufficient to reproduce every number, table and figure in the paper.
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spellingShingle Winter-Chill Attribution and CMIP6 Projections of ENSO-Driven Olive Yield Collapse on the Hyper-Arid Peruvian Coast — Reproducibility Archive
Quille-Mamani, Javier
Huanuqueño-Murillo, José
Quispe-Tito, David
Huayna-Felipe, German
Espinoza-Molina, Jorge
Acosta-Caipa, Karina
Pérez-Cubas, Heler Samir
Ingol-Blanco, Eusebio
Ramos-Fernández, Lia
Pino-Vargas, Edwin
Olea europaea
winter chill attribution
mean chill-window temperature
counterfactual decomposition
CMIP6 delta method
ENSO
El Niño
Humboldt Current
Tacna
Peru
Sentinel-2
Dynamic Model chill portions
Code, intermediate data, figures and tables supporting the AgriEngineering (MDPI) paper on winter-chill attribution and CMIP6 projections of ENSO-driven olive yield collapse in La Yarada, Tacna, Peru (18°S). Includes in-situ daily meteorology (2015-2025), Sentinel-2 vegetation indices, Dynamic-Model chill-portion preprocessing, the year-level log-OLS yield model (R²_log=0.65, β_chill=-0.82), parcel-year mixed-model, closed-form Bayesian robustness (BF10=15.9), counterfactual attribution of the 2016/2024 failure years, and CMIP6 delta-method projections (SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP5-8.5) identifying a chill-collapse threshold at ΔT_winter ≈ +1.25 °C. Parcel-level annual yields are not redistributed due to commercial sensitivity; the aggregated year-level dataset is sufficient to reproduce every number, table and figure in the paper.
title Winter-Chill Attribution and CMIP6 Projections of ENSO-Driven Olive Yield Collapse on the Hyper-Arid Peruvian Coast — Reproducibility Archive
topic Olea europaea
winter chill attribution
mean chill-window temperature
counterfactual decomposition
CMIP6 delta method
ENSO
El Niño
Humboldt Current
Tacna
Peru
Sentinel-2
Dynamic Model chill portions
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19640135