Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Language: | |
| Published: |
Zenodo
2026
|
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19707215 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866902020698406912 |
|---|---|
| author | Sri K. Naresh, Dr. G.N.Srinivas |
| author_facet | Sri K. Naresh, Dr. G.N.Srinivas |
| contents | <h3>Abstract</h3> <div>The accuracy of wind power forecasts is a crit- ical determinant of operational costs in electricity markets that employ Deterministic Market Clearing (DMC). This paper presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a two-stage DMC framework—comprising a Day-Ahead (DA) scheduling stage and a Real-Time (RT) recourse stage—on a 6-bus power system with three conventional generators and two wind farms. Four distinct forecast cases, ranging from a perfect forecast to significant over- and under-predictions, are evaluated using Linear Programming implemented in GAMS. Numerical results demonstrate that total system costs range from $1,200 (perfect forecast) to $1,700 (severe over-forecast), revealing a 41.67% cost penalty for large forecast errors. The analysis of Nodal Marginal Prices (LMPs) and real- time generator adjustments provides insight into the economic signals generated under each forecast scenario, quantifying how forecast bias propagates into commitment decisions and recourse actions.</div> <h3>Keywords</h3> <p>Electricity markets, deterministic market clear- ing, wind forecast uncertainty, day-ahead scheduling, real-time recourse, locational marginal prices.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19707215 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Deterministic Electricity Market Clearing Under Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty: A Sensitivity Analysis Sri K. Naresh, Dr. G.N.Srinivas <h3>Abstract</h3> <div>The accuracy of wind power forecasts is a crit- ical determinant of operational costs in electricity markets that employ Deterministic Market Clearing (DMC). This paper presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a two-stage DMC framework—comprising a Day-Ahead (DA) scheduling stage and a Real-Time (RT) recourse stage—on a 6-bus power system with three conventional generators and two wind farms. Four distinct forecast cases, ranging from a perfect forecast to significant over- and under-predictions, are evaluated using Linear Programming implemented in GAMS. Numerical results demonstrate that total system costs range from $1,200 (perfect forecast) to $1,700 (severe over-forecast), revealing a 41.67% cost penalty for large forecast errors. The analysis of Nodal Marginal Prices (LMPs) and real- time generator adjustments provides insight into the economic signals generated under each forecast scenario, quantifying how forecast bias propagates into commitment decisions and recourse actions.</div> <h3>Keywords</h3> <p>Electricity markets, deterministic market clear- ing, wind forecast uncertainty, day-ahead scheduling, real-time recourse, locational marginal prices.</p> |
| title | Deterministic Electricity Market Clearing Under Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty: A Sensitivity Analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19707215 |