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| Format: | Recurso digital |
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Zenodo
2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19707215 |
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Table of Contents:
- <h3>Abstract</h3> <div>The accuracy of wind power forecasts is a crit- ical determinant of operational costs in electricity markets that employ Deterministic Market Clearing (DMC). This paper presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a two-stage DMC framework—comprising a Day-Ahead (DA) scheduling stage and a Real-Time (RT) recourse stage—on a 6-bus power system with three conventional generators and two wind farms. Four distinct forecast cases, ranging from a perfect forecast to significant over- and under-predictions, are evaluated using Linear Programming implemented in GAMS. Numerical results demonstrate that total system costs range from $1,200 (perfect forecast) to $1,700 (severe over-forecast), revealing a 41.67% cost penalty for large forecast errors. The analysis of Nodal Marginal Prices (LMPs) and real- time generator adjustments provides insight into the economic signals generated under each forecast scenario, quantifying how forecast bias propagates into commitment decisions and recourse actions.</div> <h3>Keywords</h3> <p>Electricity markets, deterministic market clear- ing, wind forecast uncertainty, day-ahead scheduling, real-time recourse, locational marginal prices.</p>