Information-Geometric Analysis of Multi-Probe Consistency and Projection Instability: A Structural Interpretation of the Hubble Tension
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901978828767232 |
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| author | Davidson, Craig Kyrle Strachan |
| author_facet | Davidson, Craig Kyrle Strachan |
| contents | <p>Multi-probe inference in cosmology is typically framed as a statistical comparison between parameter estimates. This paper develops a deeper, structural interpretation based on information geometry. Independent observational pipelines induce distinct Fisher-metric geometries over a shared latent parameter space. When these geometries are misaligned, the combined inference becomes ill-conditioned, and derived scalar parameters exhibit projection-dependent instability. We formalize a geometric consistency criterion based on eigenstructure alignment, conditioning behavior, and projection stability. Applying this framework to the Hubble tension, we show that the discrepancy between early-universe (CMB) and late-universe (distance-ladder) constraints corresponds to a regime of geometric incompatibility rather than a simple numerical disagreement. The resulting instability explains why small perturbations in calibration or model assumptions can produce large excursions in inferred values of H_0. This structural perspective reframes the Hubble tension as a failure of joint geometric embedding.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19729311 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Information-Geometric Analysis of Multi-Probe Consistency and Projection Instability: A Structural Interpretation of the Hubble Tension Davidson, Craig Kyrle Strachan Hubble tension <p>Multi-probe inference in cosmology is typically framed as a statistical comparison between parameter estimates. This paper develops a deeper, structural interpretation based on information geometry. Independent observational pipelines induce distinct Fisher-metric geometries over a shared latent parameter space. When these geometries are misaligned, the combined inference becomes ill-conditioned, and derived scalar parameters exhibit projection-dependent instability. We formalize a geometric consistency criterion based on eigenstructure alignment, conditioning behavior, and projection stability. Applying this framework to the Hubble tension, we show that the discrepancy between early-universe (CMB) and late-universe (distance-ladder) constraints corresponds to a regime of geometric incompatibility rather than a simple numerical disagreement. The resulting instability explains why small perturbations in calibration or model assumptions can produce large excursions in inferred values of H_0. This structural perspective reframes the Hubble tension as a failure of joint geometric embedding.</p> |
| title | Information-Geometric Analysis of Multi-Probe Consistency and Projection Instability: A Structural Interpretation of the Hubble Tension |
| topic | Hubble tension |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19729311 |