LESE Framework Applied to the Earth System: Structural Coherence Analysis, 20-Year Projections, and Zones of Increasing Uninhabitability (2024–2044)
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | inglese |
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Zenodo
2026
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| _version_ | 1866901755949744128 |
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| author | Brigo, Galliano |
| author_facet | Brigo, Galliano |
| contents | <p>Abstract. The LESE (Lattice Entropic Structural Engine) framework, previously validated across nuclear safety,<br>plasma physics, critical infrastructure, and cosmology, is applied here to the Earth as a system. Twenty-one<br>observable nodes across seven domains (Climate, Ocean, Energy, Economy, Security, Ecosystems, and<br>Governance) are mapped to the structural coherence index W_min = min{W_ij}, compared against the<br>universal fragility threshold W* = e-1 = 0.36788. Current global W_min = 0.098 — all ten domains below W*.<br>Three scenarios (BAU/SSP2-4.5, Moderate Action, Aggressive Action) are projected through 2044 using official<br>IPCC, IEA, IMF, SIPRI, WHO, and FAO projections. Under BAU, W_min falls toward zero by 2039. Under<br>Aggressive Action, W_min approaches W* by 2044 but does not cross it — full structural recovery requires<br>decades beyond the projection horizon. Thirteen geographic zones approaching uninhabitability are identified,<br>with 316M people at risk by 2034 and 544M by 2044. Cumulative additional mortality 2024–2044 is estimated at<br>28–88M (published range 35–205M), with 175–453M displaced. This document does not constitute a<br>climate model. It applies a structural coherence framework to publicly available data to produce a system-level<br>signal. The methodology is a contribution; the underlying data belongs to IPCC, WHO, IEA, and affiliated<br>institutions.</p> <p><strong>Access available upon request. Contact: <a class="underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="mailto:galliano.brigo72@gmail.com">galliano.brigo@yahoo.it</a></strong></p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_19884578 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | LESE Framework Applied to the Earth System: Structural Coherence Analysis, 20-Year Projections, and Zones of Increasing Uninhabitability (2024–2044) Brigo, Galliano LESE Earth system structural coherence W_ij planetary boundaries uninhabitable zones climate projections W* EGESB system fragility <p>Abstract. The LESE (Lattice Entropic Structural Engine) framework, previously validated across nuclear safety,<br>plasma physics, critical infrastructure, and cosmology, is applied here to the Earth as a system. Twenty-one<br>observable nodes across seven domains (Climate, Ocean, Energy, Economy, Security, Ecosystems, and<br>Governance) are mapped to the structural coherence index W_min = min{W_ij}, compared against the<br>universal fragility threshold W* = e-1 = 0.36788. Current global W_min = 0.098 — all ten domains below W*.<br>Three scenarios (BAU/SSP2-4.5, Moderate Action, Aggressive Action) are projected through 2044 using official<br>IPCC, IEA, IMF, SIPRI, WHO, and FAO projections. Under BAU, W_min falls toward zero by 2039. Under<br>Aggressive Action, W_min approaches W* by 2044 but does not cross it — full structural recovery requires<br>decades beyond the projection horizon. Thirteen geographic zones approaching uninhabitability are identified,<br>with 316M people at risk by 2034 and 544M by 2044. Cumulative additional mortality 2024–2044 is estimated at<br>28–88M (published range 35–205M), with 175–453M displaced. This document does not constitute a<br>climate model. It applies a structural coherence framework to publicly available data to produce a system-level<br>signal. The methodology is a contribution; the underlying data belongs to IPCC, WHO, IEA, and affiliated<br>institutions.</p> <p><strong>Access available upon request. Contact: <a class="underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current" href="mailto:galliano.brigo72@gmail.com">galliano.brigo@yahoo.it</a></strong></p> |
| title | LESE Framework Applied to the Earth System: Structural Coherence Analysis, 20-Year Projections, and Zones of Increasing Uninhabitability (2024–2044) |
| topic | LESE Earth system structural coherence W_ij planetary boundaries uninhabitable zones climate projections W* EGESB system fragility |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19884578 |