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| Format: | Recurso digital |
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Zenodo
2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19938345 |
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Table of Contents:
- <p>This preprint develops an integrated three-layer framework for understanding exchange rates, monetary policy, and asset prices. The framework distinguishes (i) a deep layer of stable theoretical and behavioral regularities, (ii) a middle layer of institutional, policy, and cultural structures that evolve over years or decades, and (iii) a surface layer of market language, focal conventions, and short-term narratives. By separating these layers, the paper explains why identical deep mechanisms—such as interest rate differentials, discounting, or trend persistence—produce different observable outcomes across historical periods.</p> <p>The revised version incorporates reviewer feedback by sharpening layer definitions, clarifying causal interactions, and specifying the framework’s contribution relative to existing macro-finance theory. Applications include quantitative easing, safe-haven shifts, foreign exchange intervention, and culturally contingent technical rules. The appendices extend the framework to traditional market sayings, institutional conventions, and the structural opacity of corporate innovation.</p> <p>A mathematical appendix proves that individual investors converge to negative expected returns as trading frequency increases, due to zero-mean trading gains, strictly positive transaction costs, and the law of large numbers. The resulting cross-sectional return distribution naturally exhibits heavy tails, heterogeneity, and extreme-value behavior, providing a structural explanation for the empirical failure of Gaussian-based models such as Black–Scholes. The framework therefore unifies macro-finance mechanisms, narrative formation, institutional dynamics, and statistical structure into a single layered model of financial behavior.</p>