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2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20018108 |
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| _version_ | 1866902096101507072 |
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| author | Aizawa, Hiroaki |
| author_facet | Aizawa, Hiroaki |
| contents | <p>This record provides a minimal, reproducible test of structural concentration in a weather domain.</p> <p> </p> <p>Using daily precipitation data (Open-Meteo, Tokyo), we test whether extreme precipitation events concentrate in a predefined high-Ω regime under fixed, ex-ante definitions.</p> <p> </p> <p>Result:</p> <p>P(collapse | high Ω): 0.48</p> <p>Baseline: 0.050</p> <p>Ratio: 9.47×</p> <p> </p> <p>Ω is defined as:</p> <p>Ω = I × G</p> <p>I: rolling standard deviation of precipitation (window = 30)</p> <p>G: absolute daily change in precipitation</p> <p> </p> <p>Definitions:</p> <p>- high Ω = Ω > q(0.99) (execution layer)</p> <p>- collapse = precipitation > q(0.95)</p> <p> </p> <p>All definitions are fixed prior to evaluation and are independent (non-circular).</p> <p> </p> <p>This is not a predictive model.</p> <p>No optimization is performed.</p> <p>The result reports conditional frequency, not timing prediction.</p> <p> </p> <p>Reproducibility:</p> <p>https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP</p> <p> </p> <p>Data: Open-Meteo (public)</p> <p>Code: included in the Colab notebook</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_20018108 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Structural Concentration of Extreme Precipitation in High-Ω States (Tokyo) — Minimal Reproducible Test Aizawa, Hiroaki <p>This record provides a minimal, reproducible test of structural concentration in a weather domain.</p> <p> </p> <p>Using daily precipitation data (Open-Meteo, Tokyo), we test whether extreme precipitation events concentrate in a predefined high-Ω regime under fixed, ex-ante definitions.</p> <p> </p> <p>Result:</p> <p>P(collapse | high Ω): 0.48</p> <p>Baseline: 0.050</p> <p>Ratio: 9.47×</p> <p> </p> <p>Ω is defined as:</p> <p>Ω = I × G</p> <p>I: rolling standard deviation of precipitation (window = 30)</p> <p>G: absolute daily change in precipitation</p> <p> </p> <p>Definitions:</p> <p>- high Ω = Ω > q(0.99) (execution layer)</p> <p>- collapse = precipitation > q(0.95)</p> <p> </p> <p>All definitions are fixed prior to evaluation and are independent (non-circular).</p> <p> </p> <p>This is not a predictive model.</p> <p>No optimization is performed.</p> <p>The result reports conditional frequency, not timing prediction.</p> <p> </p> <p>Reproducibility:</p> <p>https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP</p> <p> </p> <p>Data: Open-Meteo (public)</p> <p>Code: included in the Colab notebook</p> |
| title | Structural Concentration of Extreme Precipitation in High-Ω States (Tokyo) — Minimal Reproducible Test |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20018108 |