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Main Author: Aizawa, Hiroaki
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Published: Zenodo 2026
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20018108
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author Aizawa, Hiroaki
author_facet Aizawa, Hiroaki
contents <p>This record provides a minimal, reproducible test of structural concentration in a weather domain.</p> <p> </p> <p>Using daily precipitation data (Open-Meteo, Tokyo), we test whether extreme precipitation events concentrate in a predefined high-Ω regime under fixed, ex-ante definitions.</p> <p> </p> <p>Result:</p> <p>P(collapse | high Ω): 0.48</p> <p>Baseline: 0.050</p> <p>Ratio: 9.47×</p> <p> </p> <p>Ω is defined as:</p> <p>Ω = I × G</p> <p>I: rolling standard deviation of precipitation (window = 30)</p> <p>G: absolute daily change in precipitation</p> <p> </p> <p>Definitions:</p> <p>- high Ω = Ω > q(0.99) (execution layer)</p> <p>- collapse = precipitation > q(0.95)</p> <p> </p> <p>All definitions are fixed prior to evaluation and are independent (non-circular).</p> <p> </p> <p>This is not a predictive model.</p> <p>No optimization is performed.</p> <p>The result reports conditional frequency, not timing prediction.</p> <p> </p> <p>Reproducibility:</p> <p>https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP</p> <p> </p> <p>Data: Open-Meteo (public)</p> <p>Code: included in the Colab notebook</p>
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publishDate 2026
publisher Zenodo
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spellingShingle Structural Concentration of Extreme Precipitation in High-Ω States (Tokyo) — Minimal Reproducible Test
Aizawa, Hiroaki
<p>This record provides a minimal, reproducible test of structural concentration in a weather domain.</p> <p> </p> <p>Using daily precipitation data (Open-Meteo, Tokyo), we test whether extreme precipitation events concentrate in a predefined high-Ω regime under fixed, ex-ante definitions.</p> <p> </p> <p>Result:</p> <p>P(collapse | high Ω): 0.48</p> <p>Baseline: 0.050</p> <p>Ratio: 9.47×</p> <p> </p> <p>Ω is defined as:</p> <p>Ω = I × G</p> <p>I: rolling standard deviation of precipitation (window = 30)</p> <p>G: absolute daily change in precipitation</p> <p> </p> <p>Definitions:</p> <p>- high Ω = Ω > q(0.99) (execution layer)</p> <p>- collapse = precipitation > q(0.95)</p> <p> </p> <p>All definitions are fixed prior to evaluation and are independent (non-circular).</p> <p> </p> <p>This is not a predictive model.</p> <p>No optimization is performed.</p> <p>The result reports conditional frequency, not timing prediction.</p> <p> </p> <p>Reproducibility:</p> <p>https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP</p> <p> </p> <p>Data: Open-Meteo (public)</p> <p>Code: included in the Colab notebook</p>
title Structural Concentration of Extreme Precipitation in High-Ω States (Tokyo) — Minimal Reproducible Test
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20018108