Decomposing the Pandemic Effect on School Non-Attendance: A Three-Regime Analysis Showing Persistent Elevation Beyond Policy Resolution in Japan, 2012-2024 — Data and Code
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866901806158708736 |
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| author | Miyake, Isamu |
| author_facet | Miyake, Isamu |
| contents | <p>This Zenodo deposit accompanies the manuscript by the same title. It includes the manuscript, analytic code, consolidated dataset, and all figures.</p> <p>This study analyzes 13 years (FY2012-FY2024) of grade-level annual school non-attendance counts in Japan, using piecewise linear regression to decompose the time series into three regimes (Pre-Act, Post-Act+COVID-onset, COVID-period). FY2024 is treated as an independent observation period for testing whether the COVID-period effect persists beyond the policy end of the pandemic emergency (May 2023 reclassification of COVID-19 from class 2 to class 5 in Japan).</p> <p>Key findings:<br>- Within elementary grades, the COVID effect ratio shows a perfect monotonic age gradient (Spearman rho = -1.000, p < 0.001, n = 6)<br>- All 9 grades show FY2024 observed values exceeding the upper 95% prediction interval of beta-extrapolated counterfactuals (aggregate excess: +33%, +87,313 students)<br>- Cumulative COVID excess: approximately 132,856 student-years over 4 COVID years</p> <p>All data are publicly available from Japan's e-Stat statistics portal (MEXT School Non-attendance and Behavior Problems Survey, Series 4-4-1, FY2012-2024). All annual totals match the official MEXT-published headline figures (verified: 13/13 years).</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_20136689 |
| institution | Zenodo |
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| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
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| spellingShingle | Decomposing the Pandemic Effect on School Non-Attendance: A Three-Regime Analysis Showing Persistent Elevation Beyond Policy Resolution in Japan, 2012-2024 — Data and Code Miyake, Isamu <p>This Zenodo deposit accompanies the manuscript by the same title. It includes the manuscript, analytic code, consolidated dataset, and all figures.</p> <p>This study analyzes 13 years (FY2012-FY2024) of grade-level annual school non-attendance counts in Japan, using piecewise linear regression to decompose the time series into three regimes (Pre-Act, Post-Act+COVID-onset, COVID-period). FY2024 is treated as an independent observation period for testing whether the COVID-period effect persists beyond the policy end of the pandemic emergency (May 2023 reclassification of COVID-19 from class 2 to class 5 in Japan).</p> <p>Key findings:<br>- Within elementary grades, the COVID effect ratio shows a perfect monotonic age gradient (Spearman rho = -1.000, p < 0.001, n = 6)<br>- All 9 grades show FY2024 observed values exceeding the upper 95% prediction interval of beta-extrapolated counterfactuals (aggregate excess: +33%, +87,313 students)<br>- Cumulative COVID excess: approximately 132,856 student-years over 4 COVID years</p> <p>All data are publicly available from Japan's e-Stat statistics portal (MEXT School Non-attendance and Behavior Problems Survey, Series 4-4-1, FY2012-2024). All annual totals match the official MEXT-published headline figures (verified: 13/13 years).</p> |
| title | Decomposing the Pandemic Effect on School Non-Attendance: A Three-Regime Analysis Showing Persistent Elevation Beyond Policy Resolution in Japan, 2012-2024 — Data and Code |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20136689 |