Epistemic Fabric: A Formal Topological Solution to the Goodhart Collapse

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Autor principal: Yalcinkaya, Erkan
Formato: Recurso digital
Lenguaje:inglés
Publicado: Zenodo 2026
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author Yalcinkaya, Erkan
author_facet Yalcinkaya, Erkan
contents <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Background:</strong> Goodhart collapse describes a failure mode in which an optimisation system continues to optimise a metric after the proxy relationship between that metric and the intended objective has degraded. This restricted-access deposit records Paper 116 and companion technical notes from the AxoDen / Epistemic Fabric research programme on proxy-validity failure, metric gaming, and structural detection of Goodhart-style collapse.</p> <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Methods:</strong> The work treats the proxy-validity assumption as an explicit object in a provenance-aware reasoning structure. It introduces a Goodhart Erosion Index for monitoring proxy degradation, a signature-vector formulation for separating external drift from system-induced gaming, and companion analyses covering noise stability, adversarial-bias bounds, empirical separability, and high-dimensional centrality via heat-kernel methods.</p> <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Results:</strong> The bundle reports reproducible toy-model validation under the stated benchmark assumptions, including stable-noise rejection and drift or gaming classification in the seed-42 Monte Carlo setting. The empirical separability result is scoped to the toy-model regime. Analytical claims are labelled according to their supporting assumptions and open obligations.</p> <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Conclusions:</strong> The deposit establishes a restricted prior-art record for treating Goodhart collapse as a structural proxy-validity failure rather than only a metric-monitoring problem. It is intended for controlled scholarly, diligence, or intellectual-property review. It does not claim production readiness, real-world deployment performance, or generalisation outside the stated formal and toy-model conditions.</p>
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spellingShingle Epistemic Fabric: A Formal Topological Solution to the Goodhart Collapse
Yalcinkaya, Erkan
Goodhart collapse
Goodhart's law
Goodhart Erosion Index
AI Safety
<p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Background:</strong> Goodhart collapse describes a failure mode in which an optimisation system continues to optimise a metric after the proxy relationship between that metric and the intended objective has degraded. This restricted-access deposit records Paper 116 and companion technical notes from the AxoDen / Epistemic Fabric research programme on proxy-validity failure, metric gaming, and structural detection of Goodhart-style collapse.</p> <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Methods:</strong> The work treats the proxy-validity assumption as an explicit object in a provenance-aware reasoning structure. It introduces a Goodhart Erosion Index for monitoring proxy degradation, a signature-vector formulation for separating external drift from system-induced gaming, and companion analyses covering noise stability, adversarial-bias bounds, empirical separability, and high-dimensional centrality via heat-kernel methods.</p> <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Results:</strong> The bundle reports reproducible toy-model validation under the stated benchmark assumptions, including stable-noise rejection and drift or gaming classification in the seed-42 Monte Carlo setting. The empirical separability result is scoped to the toy-model regime. Analytical claims are labelled according to their supporting assumptions and open obligations.</p> <p class="text-size-chat leading-[calc(var(--codex-chat-font-size)+8px)] extension:leading-normal my-2"><strong class="font-semibold">Conclusions:</strong> The deposit establishes a restricted prior-art record for treating Goodhart collapse as a structural proxy-validity failure rather than only a metric-monitoring problem. It is intended for controlled scholarly, diligence, or intellectual-property review. It does not claim production readiness, real-world deployment performance, or generalisation outside the stated formal and toy-model conditions.</p>
title Epistemic Fabric: A Formal Topological Solution to the Goodhart Collapse
topic Goodhart collapse
Goodhart's law
Goodhart Erosion Index
AI Safety
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20177682