Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Zenodo
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20196309 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Table of Contents:
- <p>We apply the Information-Theoretic Unification (ITU) framework (Terada 2026, concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20109209; current version v2.0.0 at 10.5281/zenodo.20133709) to economics. Markets are reframed as collective Bayesian inference engines implementing the ITU axiom dS = d<K> at the social scale. This is Tier 1 paper #8, opening the social-sciences axis of the ITU programme following the completed engineering rectangle (#1-#4) and medicine triangle (#5-#7). Pass-1 progress reaches 74 of 220 planned phases (33.6%).</p> <p>Phase 71: ITU foundation. EMH (Fama 1970) is shown as the idealised case; reality shows fat-tailed returns (4x EMH prediction for >3% daily moves). Akerlof's lemons reproduces market collapse (1000 -> 1 seller) via K_i mismatch. Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory with lambda = 2.25 quantifies K_decision asymmetry. Prediction markets (Polymarket Brier 0.16, Kalshi 0.20, Manifold 0.19) beat polls (0.25-0.36) in 2024 US election.</p> <p>Phase 72: Bubbles and crises. Minsky 3-stage instability (hedge -> speculative -> Ponzi) is K_market structural degradation; crash triggers when Ponzi exceeds 40%. Information cascades (BHW 1992) reduce collective wisdom below independent voting. Nine historical bubbles from Tulipmania (1637, -99%) to FTX (2022, -100%) span -58% to -100% drawdowns. LTCM (1998), Lehman (2008), FTX (2022), SVB (2023) illustrate distinct ITU breakdown modes.</p> <p>Phase 73: Inequality and AI labor displacement. Pareto wealth distributions emerge naturally from ITU steady state (top 1% 19%, top 10% 58% in our simulation). Piketty r > g produces unbounded K_capital divergence without redistribution. AI labor exposure (Eloundou et al. 2023 OpenAI) inverts traditional risk: translators 76%, mathematicians 63%, programmers 60% exposed; plumbers 4%, nurses 5%. Weighted 26.2% of 22.5M jobs affected. UBI cost: $1000/month US UBI = 11.1% of GDP (declining to 6% by 2050).</p> <p>Phase 74: 2026-2050 roadmap. Three GDP scenarios: bear ($44T by 2050), base ($60T), AGI-bull ($113T = 4.1x 2024). CBDC adoption from Bahamas 2020 to USA pilot ~2031. Sectoral evolution: AI/Data 3% -> 15% (+12pp), Health/Bio 10% -> 18% (+8pp), Manufacturing 16% -> 12% (-4pp). EU ETS carbon price EUR 70/t (2024) -> EUR 350/t (2050). Ten falsifiable predictions issued covering S&P 500, AGI, unemployment, UBI, CBDC, EU AI Act, GDP growth, and carbon neutrality.</p> <p>Central thesis: economics = social-scale ITU axiom implementation; markets, bubbles, inequality, AI labor effects, CBDCs, and carbon transition are all K_market structural dynamics. Honest framing: this is a Pass-1 interpretive paper that reframes classical and contemporary economics (Akerlof, Fama, Kahneman-Tversky, Pareto, Piketty, Romer, Minsky, BHW 1992) in ITU language. Numerical results match established patterns; predictions overlap with industry consensus.</p> <p>This opens the social-sciences axis, completing 8 vertices of the ITU polytope: engineering rectangle (Quantum Computing 10.5281/zenodo.20139391 + Machine Consciousness 10.5281/zenodo.20150501 + Cryptography 10.5281/zenodo.20151059 + Semiconductors 10.5281/zenodo.20174036) + medicine triangle (Cancer 10.5281/zenodo.20174318 + Aging 10.5281/zenodo.20175663 + Psychiatry 10.5281/zenodo.20177427) + social sciences first vertex (Economics, this paper).</p> <p>Includes 4 theory documents, 4 Python numerical experiments, 4 figures, 4 JSON summaries. Total runtime ~25 seconds.</p>