ECONOMIC CYCLES AND PHASE DYNAMICS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA (2016–2025): THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | inglese |
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2026
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| author | Eshboyeva, Madina |
| author_facet | Eshboyeva, Madina |
| contents | <p class="MsoNormal"><span>This paper provides a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis of economic cycle phases in the Republic of South Africa over the period 2016–2025. Drawing on classical and modern macroeconomic theories — including Keynesian, neoclassical, and Real Business Cycle frameworks — the study examines how GDP growth dynamics reflect the successive stages of expansion, peak, contraction, trough, and recovery. Empirical data demonstrate that South Africa experienced a prolonged period of weak expansion between 2016 and 2018, followed by a deceleration in 2019 and an unprecedented crisis in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although a strong rebound was recorded in 2021, subsequent years revealed a pattern of renewed slowdown and stagnation that persisted through 2025. The analysis concludes that South Africa’s economic cycle is best characterized as a weak U-shaped trajectory: the economy recovers from acute shocks but consistently fails to sustain high growth, owing to persistent structural constraints including high unemployment, inadequate investment, and weak productivity.</span></p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_20378186 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | ECONOMIC CYCLES AND PHASE DYNAMICS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA (2016–2025): THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS Eshboyeva, Madina Economic cycle, GDP growth, South Africa, expansion, contraction, stagnation, Keynesian theory, Real Business Cycle, weak expansion, U-shaped recovery, structural constraints, macroeconomic phases. <p class="MsoNormal"><span>This paper provides a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis of economic cycle phases in the Republic of South Africa over the period 2016–2025. Drawing on classical and modern macroeconomic theories — including Keynesian, neoclassical, and Real Business Cycle frameworks — the study examines how GDP growth dynamics reflect the successive stages of expansion, peak, contraction, trough, and recovery. Empirical data demonstrate that South Africa experienced a prolonged period of weak expansion between 2016 and 2018, followed by a deceleration in 2019 and an unprecedented crisis in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although a strong rebound was recorded in 2021, subsequent years revealed a pattern of renewed slowdown and stagnation that persisted through 2025. The analysis concludes that South Africa’s economic cycle is best characterized as a weak U-shaped trajectory: the economy recovers from acute shocks but consistently fails to sustain high growth, owing to persistent structural constraints including high unemployment, inadequate investment, and weak productivity.</span></p> |
| title | ECONOMIC CYCLES AND PHASE DYNAMICS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA (2016–2025): THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS |
| topic | Economic cycle, GDP growth, South Africa, expansion, contraction, stagnation, Keynesian theory, Real Business Cycle, weak expansion, U-shaped recovery, structural constraints, macroeconomic phases. |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20378186 |