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2026
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20381119 |
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| author | Belkin, Vladimir Alekseevich |
| author_facet | Belkin, Vladimir Alekseevich |
| contents | <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span>Abstract. </span></strong><span>The classical theory of innovation clusters (J. Schumpeter) and the concept of new technological paradigms (S. Yu. Glazyev), which dominate modern macroeconomics, view the emergence of basic innovations as the root cause of long waves (K-waves). However, these models leave a key question unanswered: what determines the cyclical nature of innovations and technological paradigms?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>This paper proposes an interdisciplinary approach to the nature of long waves. A mathematical model of macrocycles is constructed based on a comparison of data from the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Neutron Monitor for 1959–2022 and World Bank econometric statistics on global GDP per capita growth for 1961–2024. It is found that for the full set of GCR intercycle extremes (1959–2022, n=11), the linear Pearson correlation coefficient is R=0.843.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>The author has identified a very strong connection between the values of the maxima and minima of the GCR intensity and large waves of conjuncture (K-waves), in which the coupling of processes increases to a functional level (R=0.92 and R=0.94, respectively).</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="15">In contrast to J. Schumpeter, who associated cycles with the discrete, wave-like introduction of innovations, and N. Kondratiev, who explained them by the renewal of fixed capital, the author proves that the cyclical nature of innovations is a consequence of periodic changes in the productivity of the human brain.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="15">The minimum intensity of GCR is accompanied by maximum solar activity and, with an average lag of 2 years, maximum geomagnetic activity, which desynchronize alpha waves of the brain and reduce the collective cognitive potential of the human population.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span class="15">Forecast: </span></strong><span class="15">The resulting model suggests that by the end of 2026, the annual growth of global GDP per capita will be 1.0%.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span>Key words: </span></strong><span>galactic cosmic rays, galactic cosmic rays, K-waves, Kondratiev cycles, J. Schumpeter, S. Yu. Glazyev, alpha waves of the brain, cognitive productivity, world GDP per capita, helioeconomics, long waves of economic activity, coefficient of determination, economic cycles.</span></p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_20381119 |
| institution | Zenodo |
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| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
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| spellingShingle | Modulation of K-waves and cycles of global GDP per capita (1961–2024) by GCR extremes (1959–2022): R2=0.94 and R2=0.92 Belkin, Vladimir Alekseevich <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span>Abstract. </span></strong><span>The classical theory of innovation clusters (J. Schumpeter) and the concept of new technological paradigms (S. Yu. Glazyev), which dominate modern macroeconomics, view the emergence of basic innovations as the root cause of long waves (K-waves). However, these models leave a key question unanswered: what determines the cyclical nature of innovations and technological paradigms?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>This paper proposes an interdisciplinary approach to the nature of long waves. A mathematical model of macrocycles is constructed based on a comparison of data from the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Neutron Monitor for 1959–2022 and World Bank econometric statistics on global GDP per capita growth for 1961–2024. It is found that for the full set of GCR intercycle extremes (1959–2022, n=11), the linear Pearson correlation coefficient is R=0.843.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>The author has identified a very strong connection between the values of the maxima and minima of the GCR intensity and large waves of conjuncture (K-waves), in which the coupling of processes increases to a functional level (R=0.92 and R=0.94, respectively).</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="15">In contrast to J. Schumpeter, who associated cycles with the discrete, wave-like introduction of innovations, and N. Kondratiev, who explained them by the renewal of fixed capital, the author proves that the cyclical nature of innovations is a consequence of periodic changes in the productivity of the human brain.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="15">The minimum intensity of GCR is accompanied by maximum solar activity and, with an average lag of 2 years, maximum geomagnetic activity, which desynchronize alpha waves of the brain and reduce the collective cognitive potential of the human population.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span class="15">Forecast: </span></strong><span class="15">The resulting model suggests that by the end of 2026, the annual growth of global GDP per capita will be 1.0%.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span>Key words: </span></strong><span>galactic cosmic rays, galactic cosmic rays, K-waves, Kondratiev cycles, J. Schumpeter, S. Yu. Glazyev, alpha waves of the brain, cognitive productivity, world GDP per capita, helioeconomics, long waves of economic activity, coefficient of determination, economic cycles.</span></p> |
| title | Modulation of K-waves and cycles of global GDP per capita (1961–2024) by GCR extremes (1959–2022): R2=0.94 and R2=0.92 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20381119 |