The Cognitive Yield Ratio Insight (CYR-Insight): A New Metric for Sovereign Investment Opportunities
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| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Langue: | anglais |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866902203899314176 |
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| author | TISSAOUI, MOURAD |
| author_facet | TISSAOUI, MOURAD |
| contents | <h1>Abstract</h1> <p class="MsoNormal">Institutional investors still rely heavily on traditional sovereign credit ratings to guide geographical asset allocation. While these ratings capture short‑term default risks, they systematically ignore economic complexity—the diversity and recombinability of a country’s productive know‑how, now measured for both goods and services by Harvard’s Economic Complexity Index (ECI). This paper introduces the <strong>Cognitive Yield Ratio Insight (CYR‑Insight)</strong>, a new macro-quantitative factor that measures the gap between a country’s actual productive complexity and the complexity expected for its income tier.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Using a robust Huber regression applied to 146 countries with 2024 ECI data, we reveal economies whose productive capability is heavily undervalued (e.g. India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Tunisia) or overvalued (e.g., several AAA-rated rentier economies) by traditional rating models. We document a strong negative correlation (−0.71) between credit ratings and CYR‑Insight, confirming that rating agencies frequently confuse accumulated past wealth with future productive resilience.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A realistic global portfolio backtest over the 2015–2024 period, accounting for transaction costs and capacity constraints, shows that a strategy tilted toward high-CYR-Insight countries significantly outperforms a ratings-following portfolio, yielding a <strong>Sharpe ratio of 0.91 versus 0.51</strong>. Factor regressions confirm that CYR-Insight provides non-redundant alpha even after controlling for governance and education. Finally, we discuss two operational implementation pathways for asset managers: a multi-country design using CYR-Insight as a global factor tilt, and a conceptual, single-country barbell framework tailored for constrained asset-liability management (ALM) mandates.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Keywords:</strong> economic complexity, sovereign ratings, asset allocation, ECI, CYR, productive investment, services complexity, asset‑liability management (ALM).</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_20388473 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | The Cognitive Yield Ratio Insight (CYR-Insight): A New Metric for Sovereign Investment Opportunities TISSAOUI, MOURAD economic complexity sovereign ratings asset allocation ECI CYR productive investment services complexity country selection ALM <h1>Abstract</h1> <p class="MsoNormal">Institutional investors still rely heavily on traditional sovereign credit ratings to guide geographical asset allocation. While these ratings capture short‑term default risks, they systematically ignore economic complexity—the diversity and recombinability of a country’s productive know‑how, now measured for both goods and services by Harvard’s Economic Complexity Index (ECI). This paper introduces the <strong>Cognitive Yield Ratio Insight (CYR‑Insight)</strong>, a new macro-quantitative factor that measures the gap between a country’s actual productive complexity and the complexity expected for its income tier.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Using a robust Huber regression applied to 146 countries with 2024 ECI data, we reveal economies whose productive capability is heavily undervalued (e.g. India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Tunisia) or overvalued (e.g., several AAA-rated rentier economies) by traditional rating models. We document a strong negative correlation (−0.71) between credit ratings and CYR‑Insight, confirming that rating agencies frequently confuse accumulated past wealth with future productive resilience.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">A realistic global portfolio backtest over the 2015–2024 period, accounting for transaction costs and capacity constraints, shows that a strategy tilted toward high-CYR-Insight countries significantly outperforms a ratings-following portfolio, yielding a <strong>Sharpe ratio of 0.91 versus 0.51</strong>. Factor regressions confirm that CYR-Insight provides non-redundant alpha even after controlling for governance and education. Finally, we discuss two operational implementation pathways for asset managers: a multi-country design using CYR-Insight as a global factor tilt, and a conceptual, single-country barbell framework tailored for constrained asset-liability management (ALM) mandates.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Keywords:</strong> economic complexity, sovereign ratings, asset allocation, ECI, CYR, productive investment, services complexity, asset‑liability management (ALM).</p> |
| title | The Cognitive Yield Ratio Insight (CYR-Insight): A New Metric for Sovereign Investment Opportunities |
| topic | economic complexity sovereign ratings asset allocation ECI CYR productive investment services complexity country selection ALM |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20388473 |